Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market Defies "Mamdani Effect" With Three Consecutive Strong Weeks

Record-Breaking Sales Challenge Exodus Narrative

What happened to the "Mamdani effect"? Despite claims that New Yorkers are fleeing Manhattan ahead of mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani's potential victory, the luxury real estate market data is telling a different story.

Last week, Manhattan buyers signed contracts on 37 high-priced condos, co-ops, and townhouses, marking the third consecutive week of 30-plus luxury sales—a rare achievement that signals genuine market strength, according to The Olshan Report, which tracks Manhattan's premium segment.

Manhattan Luxury Sales Hit Three-Week Winning Streak

The recent surge in Manhattan luxury real estate activity goes against narratives about residents abandoning the city amid political concerns. For three consecutive weeks ending November 2, buyers have signed contracts on 30 or more properties priced at $4 million and above—a hat trick that brokers say indicates robust underlying demand.

This performance is particularly notable given the political uncertainty surrounding democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, whose policy proposals include:

• A 2% additional tax on incomes over $1 million
• Rent freezes on nearly 1 million rent-stabilized apartments
• A $100 billion public housing construction program
• Stricter landlord regulations and anti-displacement measures

The $50 Million Townhouse Leading the Pack

Leading last week's sales was Lucille Roberts's former Upper East Side townhouse at 4 East 80th Street, a massive 20,000-square-foot spread last listed at approximately $50 million. The nine-bedroom former Woolworth Mansion features opulent details including a living room with 14-foot ceilings, a paneled formal dining room, and three separate kitchens.

The property originally came to market in November 2024 for $59 million before the price was lowered to its current amount in March. 

Lucille Roberts, who died of lung cancer in 2003, co-founded the eponymous women's-only gym chain with her husband Bob Roberts. The business was sold to Town Sports International Holding in 2017, when it comprised 16 locations across New York City, Long Island, and New Jersey.

Downtown Condos Dominate Recent Luxury Activity

The overall mix of luxury homes that traded last week skewed heavily toward downtown condos in Tribeca, SoHo, and the West Village, which represented 15 of the 37 deals. 

Long-Stagnant Properties Finally Moving

Perhaps the most telling indicator of renewed market confidence: a few buyers have started snapping up properties that in some cases have lingered on the market for years.

The data shows consistent strength across multiple weeks:

• Oct. 27-Nov. 2: 37 luxury contracts signed
• Oct. 20-26: 31 luxury homes sold, including 235 W. 11th St., a lavishly renovated 5,900-square-foot West Village townhouse that had been marketed for more than a year
• Oct. 19-25: 30 units priced over $4 million went into contract

The "Mamdani Effect" Origins: Fact or Fiction?

The term "Mamdani effect" emerged from anecdotal reports by suburban brokers who claimed to be experiencing increased inquiries from Manhattan residents. These stories were subsequently amplified by right-wing media outlets, creating a narrative of mass exodus.

However, there are other contributing explanations for an uptick in suburban interest, including:

• Congestion and quality of life concerns
• Crime and public safety considerations
• General political turmoil
• Desire for more space and less-complicated school choices

What the Data Actually Shows

Manhattan apartment sales rose 29% in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value reaching $5.7 billion—up 56% over the same quarter last year. Growth has been particularly strong in the luxury segment.

Signed contracts for apartments priced over $10 million tripled in March 2025, demonstrating that the ultra-wealthy remain deeply committed to Manhattan real estate.

Wall Street bonuses are projected to soar 35% higher than last year, injecting billions into the luxury housing ecosystem, which helps explain the sustained purchasing power in the high-end market.

Manhattan's 2025 Luxury Real Estate Renaissance

The current market strength represents part of a broader luxury real estate renaissance in Manhattan throughout 2025:

Record-Breaking Performance

258 luxury properties changed hands in Manhattan during Q1 2025 alone, with median luxury sales prices reaching $6.87 million—an 18% year-over-year jump.

The average price per square foot hit $1,677, up 20.6% from 2024, while total sales value reached $5.7 billion in the first quarter—a breathtaking 56% increase.

Why Buyers Still Like NYC

Several market forces have converged to create favorable conditions for luxury real estate:

Stock Market Performance: The uncertain outlook for stocks makes real estate and hard assets more attractive, especially in prime wealth markets like Manhattan.

Cash Buyers Dominate: Fully 58% of sales in Q1 were all cash, with more expensive apartments over $3 million seeing 90% of sales from all-cash buyers. This insulates the luxury segment from mortgage rate concerns.

Back-to-Office Mandates: Back-to-office mandates from big banks and other companies are bringing affluent buyers back to the city on a more permanent basis.

"Boomerang Wealthy": The emergence of the "boomerang wealthy"—those who moved to spots like Florida during the pandemic and are now moving back to New York—is also boosting sales.

The Real Story: Ultra-Wealthy Rarely Leave New York

Research consistently shows that New York's wealthiest residents leave the city at significantly lower rates than other income groups. The top 1% of earners demonstrate remarkable loyalty to Manhattan, even in the face of high taxes and political uncertainty.

When high-net-worth individuals do relocate, they most commonly move to other high-tax states like New Jersey, Connecticut, or California—not Florida or Texas—suggesting that lifestyle, culture, and professional opportunities matter more than tax rates alone.

Foreign buyers have returned as a central element in Manhattan's luxury ecosystem in 2025, with international clients from Canada, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and the UK flooding back to New York.

Market Outlook: What's Next for Manhattan Luxury Real Estate?

Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, is confident that Manhattan's current levels of supply are enough to keep prices stable and foresees buyers benefitting from higher Wall Street bonuses.

Compass agent Brian K. Lewis explains: "Inventory is tighter, and equities markets are up—way up—in some instances 30 percent higher than they were in 2019. Buyers are wealthier and have been sitting on their money, ready to engage. They are now engaging".

Potential Concerns

While the luxury sales market remains robust, some legitimate concerns exist:

Interest Rate Environment: Potential for fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 could impact buyers who require financing.

Rent-Stabilized Properties: Buildings with significant rent-stabilized units face genuine financial pressure under proposed rent freeze policies.

Mid-Market Softness: Properties priced between $1 million and $3 million saw signed contracts decline by 10%, suggesting the mid-market faces different dynamics than the luxury tier.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Right Now

For Luxury Buyers

• Market momentum is real: Three consecutive weeks of 30+ sales represents genuine demand, not a temporary blip
• Long-stagnant properties are moving: Homes that couldn't sell for years are now finding buyers
• Competition is returning: Bidding wars are emerging even for properties that previously languished
• Cash remains king: All-cash offers continue to dominate the luxury segment

For Luxury Sellers

• Current conditions favor sellers: Tight inventory and strong demand create pricing power
• Properties are selling faster: Homes that would have sat for months are now moving in weeks
• Quality matters more than ever: Well-priced, well-presented properties are attracting multiple offers
• Location premium persists: Prime Manhattan locations continue commanding top dollar

The Bottom Line: Data Trumps Narrative

The "Mamdani effect" on Manhattan luxury sales appears to be largely a media-driven narrative rather than a market reality. While some individual buyers have expressed concerns and paused transactions, the broader luxury market demonstrates continued strength, vitality, and resilience.

Three consecutive weeks of 30-plus luxury sales—a rare hat trick—signals genuine market health according to Manhattan brokers. Properties that couldn't sell for years are suddenly finding buyers. Downtown condos are in high demand. Even co-ops are moving.

The real story isn't about wealthy New Yorkers fleeing Manhattan—it's about the enduring appeal of New York City luxury real estate regardless of short-term political considerations. Manhattan's fundamental value proposition—unparalleled access to culture, business, dining, and urban amenities—continues to outweigh concerns about tax policy for most luxury buyers.

As one market observer noted, New York remains a powerful magnet for the wealthy, offering a blend of luxury consumption, vibrant culture, high-quality education, and lifestyle cachet, with Manhattan as the epicenter of ultra-prime real estate.

For anyone navigating Manhattan's luxury market, the lesson is clear: focus on data, not headlines. Right now, that data points to a remarkably resilient and increasingly active high-end real estate market.

Considering buying or selling luxury real estate in Manhattan? Work with Brandon Mason, an experienced NYC real estate professional who understands current market conditions and can help you make informed decisions based on comprehensive market data, not speculation.